Six Banks Raised Fixed Mortgage Rates Up to 50 bps Since Early September: What It Means While the Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% (October 2026)

Canada’s Big Six banks have raised fixed mortgage rates several times since early September 2026, even though the Bank of Canada has not changed its policy rate in almost a year. According to Money.ca, citing Canadian Mortgage Trends, every one of the six largest banks has lifted at least some advertised fixed rates since early September, and TD and RBC raised several terms by as much as 40 to 50 basis points. The central bank’s rate is still 2.25%. This article explains what changed, why fixed and variable rates are moving in different directions, and what it means for buyers, borrowers and savers this fall.

Quick Answer

• All six big banks have raised some advertised fixed mortgage rates since early September 2026. TD and RBC raised several terms by as much as 40 to 50 bps; BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30 bps, Money.ca reported, citing CMT.
• The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is still 2.25%, unchanged since its October 2025 cut, and prime is 4.45%. The next decision is October 28, 2026.
• Fixed rates rose because bond yields rose. The 5-year Government of Canada yield climbed from about 3.4% in early September to about 3.7% in late September. Variable rates follow prime, so they have not moved.
• On a $400,000 mortgage, a 50 bp increase adds about $113 a month, or roughly $6,800 over a five-year term.

What the Big Banks Changed

The increases came in waves through September and October. These are rates the banks advertise directly to customers. Broker offers and discounts negotiated at a branch can be lower. Each bank also has a higher “posted” rate that it uses for some penalty and qualification calculations.

Here is what CMT and other mortgage news outlets reported as of mid-October 2026:

A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 50 basis points equals 0.50 percentage points. BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30 bps. The “up to 50” figure applies to some TD and RBC terms, not to every product at every bank.

Why the exact number matters

Headlines can make it sound like every mortgage became half a point more expensive overnight. That is not what happened. The changes were spread over several weeks, varied by term, and applied only to new advertised rates.

• Existing fixed-rate mortgage: your rate does not change until your term ends.
• Existing variable-rate mortgage: fixed-rate hikes do not affect your payment.
• New variable borrowers: some banks trimmed variable discounts, so a new variable rate may be a little higher than it was in the summer.

Why Fixed Rates Rose While the BoC Held

It looks backwards. The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh hold in a row since the October 2025 cut, yet borrowing costs went up. The reason is that fixed and variable mortgages are priced off different things.

Variable rates follow prime

Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs are priced at prime plus or minus a spread. Prime moves with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. With the policy rate at 2.25%, chartered bank prime has stayed at 4.45%, which is why variable rates have been steady.

Fixed rates follow bond yields

Lenders fund fixed-rate mortgages with money they lock in for the length of the term. That cost tracks Government of Canada bond yields of a similar length, especially the 5-year yield. Investors set those yields, not the Bank of Canada.

In September, a global bond selloff pushed yields higher as investors worried that higher energy prices would keep inflation elevated. According to Bank of Canada benchmark data, the 5-year yield rose from 3.42% on September 2 to a high of 3.69% in late September, an increase of about 27 bps. It closed at 3.68% on September 28. Yields eased in October to about 3.5%, but they stayed above their early-September level.

Lenders tend to raise fixed rates quickly when yields jump and cut them more slowly when yields fall. That lag is why advertised rates are still elevated even after yields came down from the peak.

Inflation is part of the story

Statistics Canada reported total CPI inflation of 3.1% in September 2026, up from 3.0% in August. That is at the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% control range. Bond investors watch inflation closely. When they expect inflation or rates to stay higher for longer, they demand higher yields, and fixed mortgage rates follow.

For a deeper explanation, see our guide on fixed vs variable mortgage rates in Canada and our earlier look at how oil prices can push mortgage rates higher.

What a Higher Fixed Rate Costs

A few tenths of a percentage point sounds small, but on a large mortgage it adds up. The table uses a $400,000 mortgage, a 25-year amortization and Canadian semi-annual compounding. These are illustrations, not quotes.

Your actual cost depends on your balance, amortization and the rate you negotiate.

Higher rates also shrink what you can borrow

Under the federal mortgage stress test, uninsured borrowers at federally regulated lenders must qualify at the greater of their contract rate plus 2% or 5.25%. When contract rates rise, the qualifying rate rises with them. A 5.14% contract rate means qualifying at 7.14%, compared with 6.64% at a 4.64% contract rate. That can reduce your maximum approved amount. Our mortgage stress test guide explains the calculation, and our guide to how mortgage interest works in Canada shows how much of each payment goes to interest.

What It Means for You This Fall

The right move depends on where you are in the borrowing cycle.

If you are buying a home

• Get a rate hold. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada says lenders may guarantee a preapproved rate for 60 to 130 days, depending on the lender. If rates rise, you keep the held rate. If they fall, ask the lender to give you the lower rate; many will, but confirm this in writing.
• Compare beyond the big banks. Big-bank advertised rates are only one data point. Credit unions, monoline lenders and brokers price differently and often lower.
• Re-check your budget at the higher rate, so another increase before closing does not catch you short.

If you have a variable-rate mortgage

Your rate has not changed because prime has not changed. The question is whether to stay variable or lock in. Locking in now means moving to a fixed rate that has just risen. Staying variable keeps you exposed to the Bank of Canada’s next moves, in either direction. There is no single right answer. It depends on how much payment uncertainty your budget can handle.

If your mortgage renews in the next few months

• Start shopping 120 to 150 days before renewal. Many lenders will hold a renewal or switch rate for about four months.
• Do not sign your lender’s first renewal offer automatically. It is often higher than what you can negotiate or get by switching lenders.

If you are a saver

Higher bond yields also lift GIC rates, especially on longer terms. If you are weighing a GIC lock-in against keeping cash flexible before the October 28 decision, read our companion article on HISA vs GIC in October 2026.

Pro Tip: If you have a rate hold at one lender and rates drop before closing, you can still apply elsewhere. Ask your broker or lender to re-quote two weeks before closing, and keep your hold as the fallback.

What to watch next

• The October 28 Bank of Canada decision. It directly affects prime and variable rates, and its message about inflation can move bond yields.
• The 5-year bond yield. If it keeps easing from its September high, lenders may trim fixed rates. CMT reported that a few lenders had started cutting select fixed rates by mid-October.
• Inflation and jobs data. Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. Weak jobs data tends to pull yields down, while high inflation can push them up.

Related reading: Bank of Canada rates and your cash strategy in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• All six big banks raised some advertised fixed mortgage rates since early September 2026. TD and RBC raised several terms by as much as 40 to 50 bps; BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30 bps.
• The Bank of Canada’s policy rate has stayed at 2.25% and prime at 4.45%, so variable rates have not followed fixed rates up.
• The 5-year Government of Canada yield rose from about 3.4% to about 3.7% in September, which drove most of the fixed-rate increases. It has since eased to about 3.5%.
• On a $400,000 mortgage over 25 years, a 50 bp increase adds about $113 a month, or roughly $6,800 over five years.
• Buyers should get a rate hold, compare lenders beyond the big banks, and budget at the higher rate.
• Watch the October 28 Bank of Canada decision and the 5-year bond yield for the next direction in rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did fixed mortgage rates go up if the Bank of Canada did not raise rates?

Fixed rates track Government of Canada bond yields, not the policy rate. The 5-year yield rose to about 3.7% in late September, which raised lenders’ cost of funding fixed mortgages. The Bank of Canada’s 2.25% rate mainly drives prime and variable rates.

Did every big bank raise rates by 50 basis points?

No. According to Money.ca, citing Canadian Mortgage Trends, BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30 basis points, CIBC raised most terms by about 20, and the largest cumulative moves, as much as 40 to 50 basis points, were on several terms at TD and RBC.

Does this change my current fixed-rate mortgage?

No. A fixed rate stays the same until your term ends. The higher advertised rates apply to new mortgages, refinances and renewals signed now.

Will fixed mortgage rates come back down?

They could if bond yields keep easing. Some lenders had started trimming select fixed rates by mid-October as the 5-year yield fell from its peak. No one can predict the direction with certainty, so compare offers and use rate holds.

Is a variable-rate mortgage cheaper than fixed right now?

It depends on the lender and the discount. With prime at 4.45%, many advertised variable rates are below the newly raised 5-year fixed rates, but some banks have trimmed variable discounts for new borrowers. A variable rate can also rise or fall after you sign, so a lower starting rate comes with payment uncertainty. Compare the full offer, including prepayment privileges and penalties, not just the headline rate.

How does a higher rate affect the mortgage stress test?

Uninsured borrowers must qualify at the greater of their contract rate plus 2% or 5.25%. A 5.14% contract rate means qualifying at 7.14%, so rising rates can lower the maximum mortgage you are approved for.

Conclusion

The Big Six banks have raised fixed mortgage rates in several rounds since early September 2026, by up to 50 basis points on some TD and RBC terms, while BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30. The cause is higher bond yields, not the Bank of Canada, which has held at 2.25%. If you are buying, get a rate hold and shop widely. If you are renewing, start early and negotiate. If you are variable, weigh payment stability against the cost of locking in at a higher rate. Watch October 28 and bond yields, because they will shape where rates go next.

Official sources: Bank of Canada: Policy interest rate; Bank of Canada: Bond yields and Daily Digest (prime rate); Statistics Canada: Consumer Price Index and Labour Force Survey; FCAC: Getting preapproved for a mortgage.